Browns Try to Maintain Edge Against Texans
Football Betting Lines
11/21/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Jamal Lewis speaks, people listen. The Cleveland Browns veteran running back called out some of his teammates for giving up after a home loss to Denver a few weeks ago and the team responded with a big win at Buffalo in Week 11.
Lewis will try to fire up his teammates again this Sunday afternoon at Cleveland Browns Stadium, where the club hosts the Houston Texans.
The lights were shining bright in prime time last Monday night at Buffalo's Ralph Wilson Stadium, and the Browns didn't let the hostile scene affect their game during a 29-27 victory in Orchard Park.
Cleveland ended a two-game losing streak with the win and improved to 4-6 to stay afloat in the AFC postseason race. Second-year quarterback Brady Quinn earned his first win in the league since taking over for deposed starter Derek Anderson, who led Cleveland to a 10-6 mark in 2007 and earned his first Pro Bowl bid that same year.
The muscle-bound Quinn, who will play despite a broken right index finger, seems to have a grasp of the offense but didn't have to do much to get the Browns back in the win column on Monday. The second-year pro went 14-of-36 for 185 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. In his previous start, Quinn was 23-of-35 passing for 239 yards and threw two touchdowns against the Broncos.
He may be without tight end Kellen Winslow, who is questionable for Sunday's game with a shoulder injury.
Houston has lost three in a row after a three-game winning streak, and fell to 3-7 on the season after last Sunday's hard-fought 33-27 loss to the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time in franchise history were most likely dashed for the Texans, who have allowed no less than 28 points in each of the past three losses.
Backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels hasn't been able to erase the loss of injured starter Matt Schaub since taking over the offense. Schaub went down on November 2 at Minnesota and has missed two starts. Head coach Gary Kubiak hopes he can return in a few weeks, since Schaub is now able to bend his knee and move around with more ease.
Rookie running back Steve Slaton has been a big surprise for the Texans and totaled a team rookie-record 156 rushing yards on 14 carries against the Colts, including a franchise-long 71-yard touchdown run. Slaton will try to keep the Houston locker room positive against the Browns' meager run defense.
SERIES HISTORY
The Browns lead the all-time series with the Texans 3-2, breaking a deadlock in the series with a 27-17 home victory when the teams met in Week 12 of last season. The Texans won the previous meeting, a 14-6 affair in Houston in 2006. The Texans are 0-2 in Cleveland all-time.
Browns head coach Romeo Crennel is 1-2 in his career against the Texans, while Kubiak is 1-1 against both Crennel and Cleveland as a head coach.
WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL
Rosenfels (956 passing yards, 4 TD, 7 INT) has thrown for 956 yards and four touchdowns on 78-of-118 passing in relief of Schaub. He has struggled in his last three performances, throwing for just three touchdowns and six interceptions. Rosenfels has proven himself to be a capable leader in the NFL, but hasn't been doing much to maintain that status for the Texans, whose offense ranks second in the AFC and fifth in the NFL at 370.1 yards per game. Houston has had the third-most prolific offense in the NFL over the last eight weeks, thanks mainly to wide receiver Andre Johnson (71 receptions, 3 TD), who leads the NFL with 955 receiving yards and extended his own team record by catching a pass in his 44th consecutive game last week. He hasn't had more than 55 yards receiving in each of the last three games, however, after posting four straight contests with no less than 131 yards. Wideout Kevin Walter (40 receptions, 6 TD) leads the Texans with six touchdown catches. He has started 25 games in the last two years and has hauled in 105 passes for 1,374 yards and 10 touchdowns over that span.
Defensive end Corey Williams (27 tackles, 0.5 sacks), who finished with four tackles against the Bills, is the biggest pass-rushing threat on the Cleveland front line that may not have fellow end Shaun Smith (17 tackles) for this weekend. Smith suffered a calf injury on Monday and did not participate in practice early this week. With no push up front, Cleveland's 19th-rated pass defense will face a true test against Houston's surprising aerial attack. Cornerbacks Eric Wright (42 tackles, 3 INT) and Brandon McDonald (43 tackles, 2 INT) were able to shut down Buffalo's passing game and Cleveland posted three interceptions in the win. McDonald came away with one of those picks. Safeties Sean Jones (33 tackles) and Brodney Pool (36 tackles, sack, 2 INT) will help the corners against both Johnson and Walter.
Houston knew the Colts had trouble defending the run, so it unleashed the rookie Slaton to great results. The Texans ran for 177 yards against Indianapolis and threw the ball only 18 times. Slaton (701 rushing yards, 6 TD) took advantage with his second-career 100-yard game. A home-run threat every time he touches the ball, Slaton ranks third among rookies with 89.9 total yards from scrimmage per game and is tied for the rookie lead with seven touchdowns scored. He also owns a 5.1 yards per carry average, good enough for fourth in the league for Houston's 15th-rated run offense, and ranks third in the AFC in rushing yards through the first 10 games of the season. Slaton can thank offensive linemen such as guard Chester Pitts for the success. Pitts is the only player to start each of Houston's 106 all-time games, but he injured his calf and is day-to-day. The Texans are averaging 114.3 yards per game on the ground this season, compared to 99.1 yards per game last year.
The Browns had a rough time stopping the run against the Bills and were lucky to escape town with a victory. Buffalo running back Marshawn Lynch had 119 yards on 23 carries, and Slaton will try for the same success against the NFL's 28th-rated run defense on Sunday. Run-stuffing tackle Shaun Rogers (52 tackles, 4.5 sacks) leads the team in sacks and had six tackles with a pass defensed this past weekend. Linebackers Andra Davis (50 tackles, 1 INT) and Kamerion Wimbley (41 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) each had an interception on Monday night, while fellow linebacker D'Qwell Jackson (99 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) leads the Browns in total tackles. Jackson had 11 stops and a tipped pass against the Bills and also made several stops against the run.
WHEN THE BROWNS HAVE THE BALL
Quinn (424 passing yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) will make his second career start at home on Sunday and matches up well against Houston's middle-of-the-pack defense. He supplanted Anderson as the starter versus Denver in Week 10, but is either a bad game or a hard hit away from losing the reigns. The athletic Notre Dame product has completed 37 of his 71 pass attempts for 424 yards and two scores this season. He has been meshing well with top receiver Braylon Edwards (35 receptions, 3 TD), who leads the team in receiving yards and is tied for the Browns lead with three scores. He matched his career high of eight receptions and totaled 104 yards against the Bills. It was Edwards' 10th career 100-yard receiving game and second of 2008. He has also caught a pass in 52 consecutive games and has a reception in every one that he has competed in during his four years in the NFL. Winslow (39 receptions, 3 TD) recently underwent an MRI on his ailing shoulder, and Quinn hopes his top tight end will be uniform on Sunday. Winslow, who did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, is averaging 87.5 receiving yards per game over his previous two contests at home.
Houston will try to put the pressure on Quinn, and not many do it better than defensive end Mario Williams (34 tackles, 8 sacks), who owns six sacks in the past seven games and his eight on the season is tops in the AFC. The first overall pick in 2006 ranks third in the NFL with 22 sacks since entering the league. The Texans didn't sack Colts quarterback Peyton Manning last week, and he burned the secondary for 320 yards and a pair of touchdown passes. Houston is 17th against the pass, allowing 210.8 yards per game through the air. Cornerback Dunta Robinson (18 tackles, 1 INT) missed the charter flight to Indianapolis on Saturday and was fined by the team. He didn't begin the game as the nickel back against the Colts, but ended with four stops. Cornerbacks Fred Bennett (34 tackles) and Jacques Reeves (29 tackles, 2 INT) were unable to contain any of Indy's wideouts and will be busy against Edwards -- and possibly Winslow -- all afternoon.
Lewis (658 rushing yards, 4 TD) is a bruising running back and had 65 yards on 18 carries against the Bills. He lit a fire under his teammates a few weeks ago and the team rebounded with a big win on Monday, even though Lewis has yet to reach the century mark in rushing this season. Backup running back Jerome Harrison (207 rushing yards, 1 TD) is faster and more elusive than Lewis, and should see more carries for the remainder of the season. He had 80 yards and a touchdown against the Bills as Cleveland ran for a season-high 161 yards. Harrison beefed up his stats with a 72-yard touchdown run for the Browns, who only 1-4 at home this season after going 7-1 as the host a year ago. Tackle Joe Thomas and guard Eric Steinbach anchor the offensive line and pave the way for both Lewis and Harrison.
Lewis will try to penetrate a Houston run defense that is rated 24th in the league and is yielding 132.5 yards per game on the ground. Colts running back Joseph Addai posted his first 100-yard rushing game in more than a year last week against the Texans because of poor tackling and defensive miscues. The Texans' interior line has been suffering without tackle Amobi Okoye (11 tackles), who has been limited in eight games this season due to an ankle injury. He is questionable against the Browns. Texans star linebacker DeMeco Ryans (73 tackles) is leading the team for the third consecutive season with 73 tackles, including 56 solos. He has led the team in tackles 21 times in 42 career games, and leads the NFL in 10-tackle games over the last three seasons with 18. Ryans ended with 11 stops against the Colts. Rookie linebacker Xavier Adibi (18 tackles) posted a career-high 14 tackles last week. He filled in for injured starter Morlon Greenwood (36 tackles), who is out with a leg injury. Greenwood is listed as questionable against Cleveland, while Adibi will likely get the start against the Browns.
FANTASY FOCUS
Lewis, Edwards, Winslow and Quinn will produce the most fantasy points from the Browns this week. Quinn, though, has been a tough start the past two weeks, but Sunday's matchup with Houston favors the young signal-caller. Edwards and Winslow seem to have to no problem sharing catches and Lewis still has the power and agility to punish opposing defenses. Expect all four to produce decent numbers in most leagues this weekend. Johnson and Slaton have taken the fantasy world by storm each week, while Rosenfels is a good start although he may lose a few points because of turnovers. Rosenfels can light up the scoreboard with the best of them, though, and Johnson should get back to his 100-yard receiving ways. Houston's Walter should only be used in an emergency.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Now is the perfect time for the Browns to start winning at home, where they are just 1-4 as the host in 2008. With hopes of a playoff berth fading at a rapid pace, the Browns must have a solid outing from the inexperienced Quinn against a defense he matches up well against. The Browns will surely devise the perfect plan for Quinn to succeed in, but he must not stray away from getting contributions by Lewis. The running back sets the tempo on offense with his punishing style of play and can open the defense for Quinn to pick apart. Houston already knows its season is pretty much in jeopardy and will do anything to crash Cleveland's party at home. Johnson and Slaton are not enough to keep the Texans from getting another notch in the loss column on Sunday.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Browns 27, Texans 20
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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