First-Place Matchup Pits Titans, Jets
Football Betting Lines
11/21/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sometimes, excessive cleverness is simply unnecessary.
Though it seems a requirement of the weekly NFL preview writer to weave a thread of humor, wit or even sarcasm into each and every pre-game tapestry, every now and then it's just piling on.
And such is the case this weekend at LP Field in Nashville.
When the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans - oh, did we mention they were unbeaten? - host the AFC East-leading New York Jets (they still have that Favre fella calling signals, don't they?) on Sunday at 1pm, any attempt to wordily buoy the event on this end would be, well...gratuitous.
So instead, we'll just leave it to the professionals.
"The undefeated Titans are big, tough and opportunistic. Correction: Make that big, tough, opportunistic and confident. Very confident," said veteran Jets beat writer Rich Cimini, in Tuesday's editions of the New York Daily News.
"That's what will be waiting for the Jets Sunday in Nashville, where the AFC's two hottest teams will meet in what could be - dare we say it? - a January preview.
"For the second time in 11 months, the Jets will face the NFL's only undefeated team. This time, they're not a mosquito staring at an oncoming windshield."
Already winners in five of six games, Gang Green officially raised itself above splattered bug status one week ago by traveling to Gillette Stadium and hanging on for a 34-31 overtime decision over the host New England Patriots - a win that provided both division supremacy and mental exorcism.
At least temporarily, anyway.
This week, in the Titans, the Jets face something of a mirror image - a powerful, multi-pronged running game, a veteran gunslinger-turned-game manager at quarterback and a mammoth nose tackle leading a so-far dominant, if not-yet appreciated defense.
Tennessee reached double-digit wins in its own dramatic style last week, rallying from an 11-point halftime deficit at Jacksonville to defeat the Jaguars, 24-14.
Kerry Collins, who's guided the team since Vince Young's physical and emotional meltdown in Week 1, threw all three of his touchdown passes in the second half and finished off an efficient 13-for-23, 230-yard day with a decisive 38-yard strike to Justin Gage with 3:57 remaining.
Still, at least one Titan is preaching restraint in the midst of the hot start.
"We've got 10 wins," said right guard Jake Scott, who played with Indianapolis when the Colts began the 2005 season with 13 straight wins and wound up losing their initial playoff game.
"That's a lot. To go undefeated, we'd have to win nine more. We're just a little over halfway. You're not even in that ballpark yet."
Tennessee is the 11th team since 1970 to win its first 10 games and the third team to do so in the past four seasons. Seven of the first 10 reached the Super Bowl, with five winning.
"It definitely gives you that realization no one's going to lay down for you in this league," Scott said. "You can show up at the Super Bowl 18-0. No one's going to lay down and let you win the game."
A little recent history...last year's Patriots raced through the regular season and playoffs at 18-0, only to lose the Super Bowl to the Jets' roommates at the Meadowlands - the New York Giants.
"You have to earn it. That's something you kind of have to watch out for at the end of the season when you're playing Week 14, 15, 16 and 17," Scott said. "You've got to still make sure you're evaluating your own performance honestly and make sure you're still getting better."
SERIES HISTORY
The Titans own a 21-15-1 lead in the all-time regular season series with the Jets, including a 10-6 home victory when the teams met in Week 16 of last season. Prior to that win, Tennessee had lost all three head-to-head matchups with the Jets since relocating from Houston prior to the 1997 season, including a 23-16 home loss in the previous meeting, in Week 1 of the 2006 campaign.
The Jets lost their only all-time postseason matchup against the Titans/Oilers, losing 17-10 in a 1991 AFC First-Round Playoff from the Astrodome.
Titans head coach Jeff Fisher is 4-3 in his career against the Jets, with his 24-10 win in the final week of the 1994 season marking his first victory as an NFL head coach. The Jets' Eric Mangini is 1-1 against both Fisher and the Titans as a head coach.
WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL
Evidence of his game-manageability, Favre has completed 40-of-52 passes for 425 yards, three touchdowns and a 119.5 passer rating in his past two starts, resulting in defeats of the Bills and Patriots. Including the postseason, his teams are 96-8 in games where he posts a rating of 100.0 or better. He is third in the conference with 18 touchdown passes and second with an overall passer rating of 93.0. On the ground, running back Thomas Jones leads the AFC with 854 rush yards and aims for a third consecutive 100-yard game. Jones has nine TDs in his past six games - 8 rushing, 1 receiving - and looks for a fifth straight game with at least one. His nine rush TDs overall are tied for third in the AFC and he's averaging 128.3 yards per game when carrying the ball at least 20 times in a game. Through the air, veteran Laveranues Coles caught eight balls for 153 yards in his lone career meeting against the Titans in 2006. Fellow wideout Jerricho Cotchery has faced Tennessee twice and has averaged 108.5 receiving yards per game. Meanwhile, rookie tight end Dustin Keller is emerging as Favre's crunch-time target. He's caught 14 passes for 194 yards and a TD in his last two games, including 12 passes for first-down yardage.
The Titans will present varied packages to Favre & Co., including man-to-man and zone defenses, along with mixtures of each. Tennessee's 15 interceptions on the season place it in a second-place tie in the league with Baltimore, one behind Green Bay at 16. Nose tackle Albert Haynesworth has a team-best seven sacks and will face a Jets offensive line that's allowed just four sacks in the last four games. End Dave Ball also seeks a fourth consecutive game with at least once sack. Overall, the Titans are 16-2 in games since 2006 where they record two or more interceptions, and are led by the trio of Cortland Finnegan, Michael Griffin and Chris Hope with a conference-best four INTs apiece. Cornerback Chris Carr recorded his first interception last week since October 2006.
WHEN THE TITANS HAVE THE BALL
Collins, a collegiate standout at Penn State who led Carolina to an NFC Championship Game and the Giants to a Super Bowl, has settled in nicely as the "you needn't win the game, but don't lose it" signal-caller and is 10-3 with Tennessee as a starter. He's completed 43-of-64 passes in his last two games, including five touchdowns, 519 yards and a 111.4 passer rating. Of course, he's leaned heavily on a rushing attack that's helped the team to a 17-3 mark since 2007 in games with 30 or more ground attempts. Rookie Chris Johnson is second in the AFC to New York's Jones with 787 rushing yards, while USC alum LenDale White has scored six times in his last five games. They'll both run behind center Kevin Mawae, who spent eight seasons with the Jets from 1998-2005. Through the air, Gage posted career highs in both yardage (147) and touchdowns (2) last week in Jacksonville, while tight end Bo Scaife needs three receptions to pass his 2007 career high of 46.
Long the Achilles heel of the team, the defense has more than held up its end in 2008, especially with the contributions of offseason newcomers Kris Jenkins and Calvin Pace. Jenkins, a nose tackle acquired in a trade with Carolina, has 2.5 sacks in his last two road games and has clogged up the middle while helping the team reach the league's top 10 in stopping the run. The Jets are third overall in the league with 34 sacks, led by a team-high seven from Shaun Ellis, though Collins has only been sacked five times this season. Second-year cornerback Darrelle Revis is tied for the AFC lead with four interceptions. Overall, the Jets are allowing 321 total yards per game and have a turnover margin of plus-1. However, they'll again be without leading 2007 tackler David Harris, who'll miss another week while recovering from recent surgery to mend an injured groin.
FANTASY FOCUS
For the Jets, Mssrs. Favre, Jones and Keller have elevated themselves to must- play roles, while Cotchery and Coles are possibilities and Leon Washington is a huge threat to either score prodigiously or be invisible. Defensively, Revis leads a sack-happy and ball-hawking bunch. For Tennessee, the runners have been solid if not individually prodigious, though having White down near the goal line often times results in short-yardage scores. Gage had a breakout week against the Jaguars and is the Titans' pass threat in a run-oriented offense. On the defense, Haynesworth is practical, if not fantasy gold, though a league-best turnover ratio (plus-10) provides plenty of reason to go with the Titans as a whole.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
If not for the presence of the Colts, Patriots, Steelers and Chargers and their long-time dominance of the AFC, this could legitimately be considered a Championship Sunday preview. In lieu of that, though, it's at least a statement game for a pair of teams wanting to be considered part of the upper class. The Jets were both magnificent and maddening in their downing of the Patriots last week, while the Titans - for at least the opening two quarters - gave plenty of fodder to those who still don't believe in spite of the 10-0 record. Each side presents matchup difficulties for the other, which could very well place the game in the hands of the veteran quarterbacks and on the toes of the serviceable kickers. In a repeat of last Thursday night, look for a late Favre drive and a clutch Jay Feely kick to be difference-makers.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Jets 17, Titans 14
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Online Sportsbook Football Betting
The NFL preseason is approaching. Time for players, coaches and teams to turn over a new leaf. General managers have hired some new coaches, while coaches have added some offensive and defensive assistants to try and improve things. Here’s a look at some changes to look for in the preseason.
New York Jets: The Jets were one of the surprise teams in the NFL last season, making the playoffs under hard-driving first-year coach Eric Mangini. Mangini rebuilt the offensive line with rookies D'Brickashaw Ferguson (the No. 4 pick in the 2007 Draft) and Ohio State center (the 29th pick in the first round). This season he upgraded the defense with rookie linebacker David Harris (Michigan) while the secondary picked up a much needed top-notch corner in Pitt CB Darrelle Revis (No. 14 overall).
The Jets have added balance to the offense for QB Chad Pennington with RB Thomas Jones, essentially stolen from the Bears. He will upgrade a New York ground game that was 20th in rushing with a weak 3.5 yards per carry. They have their first true feature back since Curtis Martin. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer prefers ball control, like his father Marty. In preseason, behind Pennington you’ll see second-year QB Kellen Clemens and mobile newcomer QB Marques Tuiasosopo.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The heat is on Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville as the Jaguars flopped last season despite a ton of talent. Keep in mind that under Del Rio the Jaguars have been outstanding in preseason with a 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS August mark. online football betting Their defense is loaded, it’s the offense that has been stuck in first gear the last few years.
Enter a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter, the former Boise State and Arizona State pass-happy coach. He will try and upgrade a passing game that ranked 24th last season. Del Rio has criticized wide receivers and Matt Jones this summer, both of whom have battled injuries. It will be interesting to watch the “new” Jaguars passing game in preseason.
Arizona Cardinals: Word out of Arizona is that the players like new coach Ken Whisenhunt, who was the Steelers offensive coordinator last year. We think of Arizona as all-passing because their running game has been awful of late because of a poor offensive line. However, keep an eye on the running game in preseason as they’ve made a lot of changes.
The new coach brings in Russ Grimm to coach the offensive line (Grimm did a marvelous job building the Steelers line). They took Penn State OT Levi Jones in the first round and signed two offensive linemen, Mike Gandy and Al Johnson, to provide depth. Reggie Wells was moved from right tackle to left guard and they want more speed out of the offensive line for pulling and traps, a Pittsburgh staple under Bill Cowher.
Atlanta Falcons: While all the attention has been focused on QB Mike Vick’s off-field problems, new coach Bobby Petrino is revamping the Falcons from an all-running team to a more balanced one. Petrino likes the experience of backup QB Joey Harrington and he has veteran backup Chris Redman, who used to play for Petrino at Louisville and knows his offenses better than anyone. Petrino wants Vick to be more of a pocket passer.
The addition of FB Ovie Mughelli is a sign Petrino wants a power rushing attack behind a physical fullback and newcomer WR Joe Horn should upgrade what was a below average wideout corps. Petrino is changing their old zone-blocking scheme to a more traditional in-line blocking scheme and the offensive line is bigger. Rookie DE Jamaal Anderson was grabbed in the first round and the secondary got younger with former Auburn cornerback David Irons, who the Falcons think was a steal as a sixth-round pick.
Cleveland Browns: The 2007 Browns look like a double-edged sword. There was the excitement of the offseason, trading for RB Jamel Lewis, upgrading the offensive line with Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas (the No. 2 pick in the draft) and free agent LG Eric Steinbach, then trading for Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn when he fell to No. 22. GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel feel they have a talented, balanced offense with these new pieces, plus TE >Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards.
However, were these moves made in desperation? And were they foolish ones? The Browns gave up their 2008 first-round pick for Quinn and we all know QBs take time to develop. And even first-round QBs can be busts (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith). We also don’t know if the offensive line is that much improved (31st in rushing in 2007) and they did nothing to improve a defense that was awful against the run (142 yds pg allowed).
The Browns have a new offensive coordinator in Rob Chudzinski. This is a young offense and Quinn looked tentative, indecisive and inaccurate early in camp. Crennel will play Charlie Frye, Quinn and Derek Anderson in preseason. And there is a mixed bag for rookie QBs receiving significant starts: Tim Couch (14), Kerry Collins (13), Ben Roethlisberger (13), Vince Young (13), Joey Harrington (12), Matt Leinart (11) and Kyle Boller (nine). While all the focus will be on the Browns new-look offense, I’m more concerned with the defense.
Carolina Panthers: Coach Jon Fox loves the ground game, but Carolina has made some interesting changes for 2007. Fox fired offensive coordinator Dan Henning and brings in Jeff Davidson to run the offense. Davidson has brought in zone-blocking schemes to the Panther offense, a dramatic change for a system that's been built around a power-running style.
In zone-blocking, offensive linemen are responsible for blocking any defender who appears in their zone, instead of focusing on one defender. The Broncos and Falcons have had success with the system, which features smaller, more athletic offensive linemen and can create running lanes on the inside and outside. Keep an eye in preseason on how Carolina adjusts as it will take time to learn the system. Fox has been one of the top coaches in preseason, with a 15-5 SU, 12-7-1 ATS August record.
Dallas Cowboys: WR Terrell Owens is still here, but QB Drew Bledsoe and Bill Parcells are gone. New head coach Wade Phillips takes over, replacing Parcells. He ran the Chargers defense last season. Phillips was chosen by teary-eyed owner Jerry Jones partly because he is one of the best 3-4 coaches in football and the Cowboys have loaded up on players for that scheme.
Remember that Phillips was blitz-happy with the Chargers last season and early reports out of the Dallas camp have mentioned how the Cowboys have been blitzing a lot, a departure from Parcells. The theme of the 2007 Dallas defense appears to be one of attack.
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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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