Road to Super Bowl XLVI: Pats' offense made it look easy
Football Betting Lines
01/30/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - History will show that the New England Patriots did not beat a team with a winning record during the 2011 regular season. That perhaps made them their own worst enemy during their march to Super Bowl XLVI.
For the second straight season, the Patriots went into the playoffs as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. While last year's campaign ended with a disappointing loss to the New York Jets in the Divisional Round, New England used a customary explosive offense and some big-time rallies to earn a spot in this Super Bowl and a rematch with Gotham's other resident, the Giants, from the two clubs' memorable clash in the NFL's championship game four years ago.
It's the same Giants who also handed the Patriots one of their three regular- season losses in 2011. In fact, the Giants (9-7) and Pittsburgh (12-4) were the only teams that New England faced during the regular season that ended with a record above .500. Both games culminated in losses, as did a Week 3 affair with Buffalo that was part of the Bills' 3-0 start that ultimately ended with a 6-10 finish.
In total, seven of New England's 13 regular-season victories came against teams that ended with a mark of 8-8, so it at least won the games it was supposed to.
Regardless of who the Patriots lined up against, it was still a dominating effort by Tom Brady and the offense that carried the club all season long. While the defense ranked 31st in the league in yards allowed per game, the Brady-led offense set a new team record with 6,848 net yards and finished the season with 513 points. That marked New England's fifth straight year with 400 points or more and second in a row over the 500 mark.
New England showed right off the bat just how talented the offense was. The Pats set a new team record for total yards in a game with 622 in a 38-24 season-opening win over Miami, a contest that featured a 99-yard touchdown pass from Brady to wide receiver Wes Welker.
The duo didn't slow down all season, with Welker leading the AFC with 1,569 receiving yards. Brady's other favorite target, tight end Rob Gronkowski, finished second with 1,327 yards to go along with an incredible 17 touchdown catches. Gronkowski's yardage and touchdown totals both set NFL single-season records by a tight end.
Brady, meanwhile, set a new personal record with 5,235 passing yards, a number that broke Dan Marino's league single-season mark but was also eclipsed in 2011 by New Orleans' Drew Brees (5,476 yards).
New England would go on to post 1,621 yards of offense over its first three games, but was just 2-1 thanks to a 34-31 defeat in Buffalo on Sept. 25 in which Brady threw four interceptions and the defense allowed 448 yards.
The Patriots quickly rebounded with consecutive wins over Oakland, the New York Jets and Dallas prior to their bye week. They then came out of the break with two tough games -- at Pittsburgh and home versus the Giants -- and were held to just 213 yards of offense in a 25-17 defeat to the Steelers.
Seven days later, the Patriots led the Giants by three points following a 14- yard touchdown pass from Brady to Gronkowski with 1:36 remaining. However, Eli Manning took his offense 80 yards and hit tight end Jake Ballard for the game- winning score with 15 ticks left on the clock as New York pulled out a 24-20 win.
Not only did that result send the Patriots to a second straight loss, but it ended their 20-game home winning streak.
"We're not playing the way we're capable of playing - so try to figure out the reasons why." Brady said at the time. "We keep practicing. We keep battling out there. I'll say that there's a lot of fight in the guys."
The Giants' game was also a preview of something that would plague the Pats down the stretch: Slow starts.
Though New England hasn't lost since that setback to New York, it hasn't always been easy. The Patriots didn't score their first points versus the Giants until 5:29 left in the third quarter, but a solid defensive effort that featured a scoreless first half kept them in it.
Still, it was a sign of things to come. New England gave up 10 quick points in Philadelphia on Nov. 27 before settling down for a 38-20 win. The following week against 0-11 Indianapolis, the Pats allowed 21 fourth-quarter points before holding on for a 31-24 win. Not helping was the fact that New England was held to only three points by the then-winless team in the first quarter.
Consecutive road wins at Washington and Denver led to New England clinching the AFC East, filling in one check box for the Patriots.
"That's one of our goals at the start of the season: to meet the challenge of our division, and our players have done that," said head coach Bill Belichick following the division-clinching 41-23 win over Denver on Dec. 18. "We are 6-2 on the road. They've done a good job. They've met a lot of challenges and this was a big one."
Though New England won its final two home games of the season to lock up the AFC's top seed, the games were far from walkovers despite being against a pair of eventual 6-10 opponents. The Patriots trailed Miami 17-0 before rallying for a 27-24 victory, and an even bigger comeback was in the cards eight days later versus the Bills.
Buffalo scored the game's first 21 points in a Week 17 rematch on New Year's Day, but Brady and company responded with 480 yards of offense and 49 unanswered points for a 49-21 triumph.
"It's not planned that way," Brady said afterward. "There's no panic. I don't feel like the guys on the sidelines really panic. I just feel like it's really a matter of execution, and we started executing better and we put points on the board."
Still, the three-time Super Bowl champion quarterback knew that the Patriots might not be as lucky in the postseason, so they gave it all they had against visiting Denver in the Divisional Round. New England set single-game franchise playoff records for points and net yards (509), including 146 on the ground, in the 45-10 rout of the Broncos, with Brady matching an NFL playoff record with six touchdown passes in one game. Three of those, of course, went to Gronkowski, giving him a share of the postseason single-game record for that category.
Things were much tighter the following weekend in a 23-20 triumph over Baltimore, which outgained the AFC East champs by a 398-330 margin in total yards and nearly forced overtime before Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field goal with 11 seconds remaining.
In fact, it may have been Brady's worst performance of the season. While the former league MVP did put New England ahead for good with a one-yard touchdown dive with 11:29 to play, he was picked off twice and held without a touchdown pass for the first time in two years.
"I sucked pretty bad today," Brady said during the on-field ceremony that followed the AFC Championship, "but our defense saved us."
That was a pretty harsh assessment for a man who had just matched Joe Montana for the most career playoff wins (16) in a career. Brady, though, praised his teammates in the locker room afterwards.
"We won 10 straight games and they haven't all been pretty. We've started slow, we've started fast. The offense has played really well at times; the defense has played really well at times. It's a pretty mentally-tough team. There's really some resiliency, we've shown that all season. Even in the games we've lost, the three games we lost, we fought until the end."
The Pats will need to be prepared mentally for this game as well, given their recent history with the Giants. Not only does New York already own one victory over New England this season, but this second meeting also serves as a rematch of Super Bowl XLII, a contest in which the Pats were undone by Manning's incredible late-game pass to David Tyree, who cradled the ball against his headgear after his quarterback escaped pressure. Known as "The Helmet Catch," the play extended the drive and helped set up New York's go-ahead touchdown in a 17-14 win.
That loss ended New England's bid for a perfect season as well, but the good news for the Patriots is that all roads lead forward, not backwards.
"It's in the past. We can't do anything about our past," running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis said. "We have to do something about our future moving forward and how we prepare for those guys. We know they're a good team, so we have to be ready."
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Teams that should be in: Stanford
Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.
Should be in:
Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.
| Southeastern Conference odds | |
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.
Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile. |
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MySportsbook.com: NFL draft - The NFC South
In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South. Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC. The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game. For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft. Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.
1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign? New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1. Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT. Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.
Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami
2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season. With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round. LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems. If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.
Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season. The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach. The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub. High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career. With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson.
Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season. The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age. It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot. This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.
Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season. On the clock: the NFC North
Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2
Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1
Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1
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