Syracuse visits Louisville in pivotal Big East clash
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
02/13/2012 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tied with top-ranked Kentucky for the best overall record in the nation, the Syracuse Orange hit the road tonight to clash with the Louisville Cardinals in a Big East Conference showdown at the KFC Yum! Center.
Since suffering their only loss of the season to Notre Dame on the road last month, the Orange have ripped off another five wins, two of those coming in the last week. First, Syracuse survived in overtime against Georgetown on Wednesday night (64-61), and then on Saturday the squad pummeled UConn at the Carrier Dome (85-67). Overall, Syracuse is 25-1 and 12-1 in conference play, one of only two teams in the Big East with double-digit wins (Marquette, 10-3).
As for the Cardinals, they've rebounded nicely after losing three of four conference games in January. After bowing to Marquette on the road (74-63) in the middle of the month, Louisville has logged six consecutive victories and is now 8-4 in conference play, which keeps it in the hunt for a top spot in the standings with the Big East Tournament just a few short weeks away. On Saturday, the team picked up a narrow 77-74 win over West Virginia in Morgantown, evening out the all-time series with the Mountaineers on the road at 3-3 in the process. Louisville has now won at least 20 games in 10 straight seasons, and head coach Rick Pitino has done it a total of 20 times during his illustrious career.
Not only do the Cardinals hold the overall lead in the series with Syracuse at 13-4, they've also been almost unbeatable at home in the relationship, posting seven wins in eight opportunities, not to mention winning seven straight matchups overall. The two teams are slated to close out the regular season against each other in early March.
With the Huskies still sticking around in the second half, Syracuse put together a 22-6 run late in order to produce the 18-point win over UConn at the Carrier Dome on Saturday. Scoop Jardine led the hosts with 21 points, hitting all four of his three-point attempts and making 8-of-9 shots from the floor overall, not to mention handing out six assists. Dion Waiter added 18 points and Kris Joseph 15, while C.J. Fair made a huge impression off the bench with 14 points and a game-high 12 rebounds as the team shot a staggering 10-of-16 beyond the arc and 59.3 percent from the floor overall. In conference games this season, Joseph leads a balanced offensive attack with his 14.2 ppg, with Waiters (12.5 ppg) being the only other double-digit performer on the roster. Jardine (8.2 ppg) has served up 77 assists during the conference slate and because of that the team has one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the county. Taking exceptional care of the basketball, the Orange averages less than 11 turnovers per contest over the entire season, and that too is one of the top marks in the nation.
Trailing by as many as 13 points in the first half on Saturday at West Virginia, the Cardinals turned up the defensive pressure after the break and held the hosts to just eight total field goals and escaped with the three- point win after Darryl Bryant missed a three-pointer at the end of regulation. Louisville had a balanced scoring attack that saw five players reach double figures, beginning with Kyle Kuric who tallied 17 points and knocked down a pair of crucial free throws in the final moments. Russ Smith pitched in with 16 points, Chris Smith and Wayne Blackshear 13 apiece and Peyton Siva finished with 10 points and five assists. Kuric, who had a huge game against Syracuse last season, leads four regulars in double figures with his 13.2 ppg, followed by Russ Smith (12.3 ppg), Chris Smith (10.5 ppg) and Gorgui Dieng (10.1 ppg), the latter also responsible for a team-best 9.2 rpg. Siva (8.5 ppg) has had his moments on offense, but it is his job to distribute the ball (131 assists) and also play tight defense (41 steals) and because of him and Russ Smith (55 steals), the Cardinals are averaging 9.4 thefts per game which ranks among the best in the nation.
Waco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The tie for third place in the Big 12 Conference Standings will be broken tonight, as the Iowa State Cyclones square off with the Baylor Bears at the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas. The Cyclones have played Baylor
<< Jayhawks and Wildcats mix it up in Manhattan
Manhattan, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sunflower State rivals square off in
Manhattan this evening, as the Kansas Jayhawks pay a visit to the Kansas State
Wildcats in an important Big 12 Conference clash.
After a December 19 loss to Davidson, Kans
<< Heat try to solve Bucks at Bradley Center
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat resume a hectic three games in three nights
stretch tonight when they hit the hardwood at Bradley Center vs. the Milwaukee
Bucks.
The Heat kicked off their tough journey and improved to 2-1 on a season-long
<< Jazz continue hectic stretch in NOLA
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Utah continues a grueling three games in three nights road
stretch tonight in the Big Easy when it visits the struggling New Orleans
Hornets.
The Jazz snapped a three-game skid in Memphis last night with an impressive
98-
<< Canucks host streaking Coyotes in Vancouver
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Coyotes will try to push their longest winning
streak of the season to six games when they visit the first-place Vancouver
Canucks tonight at Rogers Arena.
The Coyotes, who are holding onto the eighth seed in t
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Phoenix will begin a grueling three games in three nights stretch in Oakland tonight against the Golden State Warriors. The Suns have won three straight on the road, including Saturday's 98-84 win in Sacramento, and 11 of
Clippers finish road trip in Dallas >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Clippers hope to tie a bow on a successful
road trip by securing their first win in over five years in North Texas when
they take on the reigning NBA champion Mavericks.
The Clips have lost nine straight in
Rounding Third: Linsanity would never happen in MLB >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The whole sports world seems to be
enamored with what's going on with the New York Knicks and Jeremy Lin. It's
become a story that has transcended not only the National Basketball
Association, but all of spor
Revs add French forward Sene >>
Foxborough, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Revolution announced on
Monday that the club has acquired forward Saer Sene on a free transfer from
Bayern Munich.
Sene has spent the past two-and-a-half years playing with Bayern
Packers make changes to offensive staff >>
Green Bay, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy
announced a few changes to the club's offensive staff on Monday.
Jerry Fontenot will move from running backs coach to tight ends coach for
2012, while Ben
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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FOOTBALL BETTING
After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.
Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.
Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.
So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.
In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.
For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.
The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.
The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.
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